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2024-12-13 04:50:10

The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.Seven people were killed in the attack on Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza. On the 12th local time, it was learned from the Palestinian side that Israeli troops bombed Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza, killing seven people and injuring many others. According to medical staff in Rafah, seven dead people were attacked while protecting a rescue truck that arrived in the city. (CCTV News)The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue gale warning at 18: 00 on December 11. It is estimated that there will be about 5 northerly winds and gusts of 6-8 in eastern Xinjiang, central and western Inner Mongolia, Hexi, Ningxia and northwestern Shaanxi from 20: 00 on December 11 to 20: 00 on December 12. There will be 7-8 northeast winds with gusts of 9 in the southern part of the East China Sea, the Taiwan Province Strait, the east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel and the northern and central parts of the South China Sea.


Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Shandong Gold H shares to over-allocation, with a target price of HK$ 22.20.Seven people were killed in the attack on Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza. On the 12th local time, it was learned from the Palestinian side that Israeli troops bombed Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza, killing seven people and injuring many others. According to medical staff in Rafah, seven dead people were attacked while protecting a rescue truck that arrived in the city. (CCTV News)Promoting Peace and Cooperation Ethiopia and Somalia signed the Ankara Declaration. On December 11th, local time, under the mediation of Turkish President Erdogan, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi and Somali President Mahmoud signed the Ankara Declaration in Ankara, Turkey, announcing that they would promote peace and cooperation.


CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.Market News: Most members of the US House of Representatives support the $895 billion national defense policy bill, and voting continues.According to OpenAI, ChatGPT is now integrated into Apple's iOS, iPadOS and macOS, and users will be able to access ChatGPT through these systems.

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